Crudo análisis sobre la Argentina de The Wall Street
Journal...
Mauricio Macri debe dar "un golpe decisivo
contra la inflación", según el Wall Street Journal. Reuters/Adriano
Machado
La
columnista Mary Anastasia O'Grady analiza las tensiones presentes entre la
oposición y el gobierno de Cambiemos.
© Publicado el lunes 12/02/2018 por el Diario Clarín de laCiudad
Autónoma de Buenos Aires.
Una columna de opinión
de The Wall Street Journal afirma
que el mayor logro de Mauricio Macri será terminar
su mandato en 2019.
Con el título "La
inflación acecha a Macri en Argentina", la columnista Mary
Anastasia O'Grady analiza las tensiones presentes
entre la oposición y el gobierno de Cambiemos, teniendo en cuenta la actualidad
económica del país.
O'Grady señala que Macri sorprendió a
Argentina al ganar la presidencia en 2015, pero su mayor
logro será seguir en el poder cuando termine su
mandato, en diciembre de 2019, teniendo en cuenta que el último
presidente no peronista en lograrlo fue Marcelo
T. de Alvear en 1928, y que desde entonces "sobrevive
hasta el día de hoy una cultura de inestabilidad política", considerando
que los únicos dos presidentes no peronistas desde 1983 tuvieron que dejar el
poder a causa de las crisis económicas.
Si bien para
la columnista Macri puede romper el hechizo,
"no hay certeza de que lo hará, y dado que subestimó la magnitud de los
problemas que heredó de la ex presidenta Cristina Kirchner, el
argumento a favor de un gobierno más chico ahora requiere un liderazgo aún más
audaz".
Hugo
Moyano junto a Roberto Baradel. La movilización del líder camionero y la
discusión por la paritaria docente son dos temas claves que enfrenta el
gobierno. Daniel Dabove/Télam
La autora describe que
los doce años de kirchnerismo dejaron al país "en la bancarrota,
tanto financiera como institucionalmente".
"Los
Kirchner encarcelaron a los opositores políticos, confiscaron la propiedad
privada, nacionalizaron los negocios, amordazaron a los medios críticos,
fomentaron las patotas callejeras, falsificaron las estadísticas
gubernamentales y destruyeron la independencia del banco central", detalla
O'Grady, y destaca que cuando Macri asumió la presidencia, el discurso pasó de
ser imperial y vengativo a civil y conciliatorio.
Macri, para llegar a
buen puerto, debe bajar la inflación y restaurar
el crecimiento económico, aunque para O'Grady el presidente está "retrasado"
en sus promesas y "corre el riesgo de que se le acabe el tiempo".
Para el Wall
Street Journal, "el desafío a largo plazo es liberar una economía encadenada
por altos impuestos, fuertes regulaciones y proteccionismo comercial".
Sin embargo, en este momento "Macri se enfrenta a una situación fiscal
precaria causada por el gasto gubernamental desbocado y un crecimiento
lento".
La autora describe que los doce años de kirchnerismo dejaron
al país "en la bancarrota, tanto financiera como institucionalmente".
"El
gasto total del gobierno en los niveles federal, provincial y local, incluido
el servicio de la deuda, genera hoy un déficit fiscal abrumador del 8% del
producto bruto interno. La
inflación cayó al 25% desde el 40%, pero reducirla más requiere una combinación
de políticas más audaz", detalla
O'Grady, que critica el enfoque "gradualista" del gobierno, al
considerar que está "jugando con fuego".
De acuerdo a la autora,
una de las grandes pruebas que
enfrenta el gobierno se dará en marzo, con la discusión de la paritaria docente,
y pone como anticipo decisivo la movilización encabezada por Hugo
Moyano para el 21 de febrero.
"El
sindicalismo espera paralizar el país,
hacer que los salarios equiparen la inflación actual, sofocar los planes
políticos de Macri y agregar su nombre a la lista peronista
de presidentes de mandato interrumpido", advierte.
Y, si
bien Cambiemos superó con éxito las elecciones de medio término, "lo cual
significa que el país apoya sus esfuerzos", para O'Grady "Argentina
necesita un golpe decisivo contra la
inflación.
Link:
Inflation Stalks Macri in Argentina.
The Peronists hope to end his presidency prematurely. They may well succeed.
Inflation Stalks Macri in Argentina.
The Peronists hope to end his presidency prematurely. They may well succeed.
Mauricio Macri shocked Argentina—and even his own
supporters—by winning the presidency in 2015 in a runoff against a Peronist
party rival. But if the founder of the young Republican Proposal Party is still
in office when his four-year term ends in December 2019, it will be an even
greater accomplishment.
The last
non-Peronist president to finish his elected mandate was Marcelo T. de Alvear
in 1928. Two years later the military removed President Hipólito Yrigoyen in a
coup, the first since the 1853 constitution was approved. A culture of
political instability survives to this day.
True, there hasn’t
been a military coup in Argentina since 1976. Democracy was restored in 1983.
Nevertheless economic crises forced the early resignations of the only two
non-Peronist presidents elected in the most recent democratic period. Now
Peronists claim that they are the only ones who can govern the country.
Mr. Macri could
break the spell. But it is far from certain that he will, and because he
underestimated the magnitude of the problems he inherited from former President
Cristina Kirchner, the case for smaller government now requires even bolder
leadership.
Twelve years of
Kirchner rule—first Néstor Kirchner (2003-07), followed by his wife
(2007-15)—left this country bankrupt, both institutionally and financially. The
Kirchners jailed political opponents, confiscated private property,
nationalized businesses, gagged media critics, fomented street mobs, falsified
government statistics, and destroyed the central bank’s independence. Kirchnerismo bloated
the government and left the economy in shambles.
When Mr. Macri took
the oath to uphold the constitution, the presidential discourse went from
imperial and vengeful to civil and conciliatory overnight. Argentina’s
international image was also instantaneously upgraded. The Kirchners’ most
important alliances were with totalitarian Cuba, authoritarian Venezuela and
theocratic Iran. Mr. Macri symbolizes a renewed commitment to Western
democracy, including the re-establishment of relations with the U.S.
Argentines describe
their country as “normal” again. Yet to succeed, Mr. Macri also has to keep his
pledge to slay inflation and restore economic growth. On this score he is
running behind and risks running out of time.
The long-term
challenge is to liberate an economy shackled by high taxes, heavy regulation
and trade protectionism. These are economic policy questions but they are
fundamentally cultural hurdles in a nation with deeply rooted political
traditions of populism, mercantilism, crony capitalism and an outsize role for
organized labor.
Only a system that
guarantees economic freedom can produce fast growth and the wealth creation
that Argentines yearn for. The country needs reliable laws that encourage risk
taking and competition, and a new narrative in which entrepreneurial success is
celebrated and businesses are allowed to fail.
This is a
generational project. In the meantime, Mr. Macri faces a precarious fiscal
situation caused by runaway government spending and slow growth. Total
government spending at the federal, provincial and local levels, including debt
service, now generates a staggering annual fiscal deficit of 8% of gross
domestic product. Inflation has fallen to 25% from 40%, but bringing it down
further requires a more courageous policy mix.
Mr. Macri has
promised to curtail government spending. But without majorities in Congress, he
has taken a gradualist approach. He imagines he’s erring on the side of
caution, but he’s actually playing with fire.
The primary
deficit, which excludes the cost of servicing the debt, was 3.9% of GDP last
year. If the government’s forecasts are correct, this year it will remain
stubbornly high, at 3.3% of GDP, and it will drop to 2.2% of GDP in 2019.
These large
deficits are putting pressure on the central bank to print money. It has
partially resisted by sterilizing some dollar inflows but, according to the
Buenos Aires-based think tank Libertad y Progreso, last year the monetary base
increased at the same rate as inflation.
In a country where
union power is legendary, this is particularly pernicious because it fuels
inflationary expectations. Mr. Macri will face his next big test when the
government negotiates salary increases with the teachers unions in March. In
anticipation of that showdown, union activists—Mrs. Kirchner’s most important
constituents—have organized a nationwide mobilization for late February. They
hope to paralyze the country, push wages to match current inflation, quash Mr.
Macri’s agenda and add his name to the Peronist list of interrupted
presidencies.
Mr. Macri’s party
did well in midterm elections last year, which means the nation backs his
efforts. But today’s benign global-market conditions will not last forever and
punishingly high interest rates, now around 28%, stifle growth. Argentina needs
a decisive strike against inflation. So does Mr. Macri’s presidency if it is to
survive and thrive.
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